Michael Clemens from the Centre for Global Development on immigration [emphasis mine]:
The research we have shows that immigration has had a positive effect on economic growth in Europe overall. This remains true in economists’ most sophisticated forecasts for the future. Christian Lutz and Ingo Wolter forecast a positive effect of immigration on German economic growth. Katerina Lisenkova and Miguel Sanchez forecast a positive effect of immigration on UK economic growth. And so on.
I would go as far as to say that this is a consensus opinion among economists. That is saying a lot, because economists are known for putting caveats on everything. But all the serious evidence we have points to large gains in overall economic activity from reduced barriers to labor mobility. Ninety-six percent of American labor economists agree that the economic benefits of US immigration exceed the losses.
That is essentially unanimity. While a handful of economists make vague claims of economic harm from immigration, they generally have not done any peer-reviewed economic research to support that claim, and their views should be regarded as political opinions rather than reflecting economic expertise.
Of course, speed matters. There are many reasons to expect the impact of a million immigrants to depend on whether they arrive over three years or over 20 years. This is largely absent from public debate, which tends to focus instead on absolutes like “stop them all” or “let them all in immediately.”
A more nuanced debate would begin from the solid consensus of serious economic research that there are large overall economic benefits, and discuss how to transition in order to capture those benefits. Economic development in poor countries is associated with more emigration—not less—for the same reasons that you’re more likely to see people from an outlying neighborhood living and working in an upscale part of your town-center when that outlying neighborhood gets richer. One of the great policy challenges of the 21st century is how to build policies that translate mobility into economic benefit, rather than building naval blockades and mass-detention camps.
More of interest from Michael in Vice
I have recently been struggling to come up with a single policy/movement that would have a greater impact than opening borders (even gradually).
As the election draws near a common phrase has been cropping up on my Facebook feed: “it is the responsibility of citizens to vote”. And that phrase makes me uncomfortable.
Until recently I couldn’t articulate why, but the recent debate in US politics on compulsory voting gave me some clarity. It is simply because the correct phrase should be “it is the responsibility of citizens to use their vote responsibly”. An irresponsible vote is not one that strengthens democracy or improve a country’s ability to govern.
Voting responsibly doesn’t mean that people should vote for who I want them to (whenever I decide who that is anyway), or that I think protest votes don’t have a place in politics. It simply means it is the responsibility of a voter to consider their choices carefully – not to tick a box without thought.
Compulsory voting discussions gave clarity to me here because they are the enemy of responsible voting. Even when there is a “none of the above option” it encourages lazy voting. Why not tick a party box if you have to turn up anyway? Might as well tick something, even if you haven’t considered the options much.
Voting should be a conscious choice, with a deliberate thought behind your decision to change the place you live on through politics.
Countries like Australia are not better democracies because of compulsory voting – they are worse. And even in non-compulsory world we need to be careful of what we are asking citizens to do on polling day, and the somewhat lazy rhetoric we use to get people out to vote (nit-picker that I am).
That said, get out there and vote on 7th May, just think about it first!
The Guardian have started doing great short explainer videos for some of their long-running coverage. This one on the Prince Charles black spider memos is a great example. Campaigners are increasingly producing short video-explainers, but I think the clarity of the Guardian videos is something to learn from.
Recently read this interesting article from Bloomberg on the perils of police cameras. They seem like such an easy and obvious win in response to incidents like Ferguson, but Bloomberg make a strong argument for why it isn’t quite so simple.
On recruitment and effective policing:
Police cameras are also prone to intentional abuse. With mysterious frequency, they seem to accidentally get switched off or malfunctionat critical moments. One obvious remedy is to require that cops always keep them on. But that can be counterproductive. Witnesses and victims may be less forthcoming on camera. Attracting competent officers could become harder if their every interaction is recorded. Crucially, officers may simply avoid engaging certain communities, or avoid areas where confrontations are likely, if they know they’re being filmed.
equipping police with cameras and audio recorders means that they’re constantly conducting surveillance on innocent civilians — and potentially storing it all. Police frequently enter private homes and encounter people in medical emergencies who may not want to be filmed. Some officers may be tempted to record people on the basis of race or religion. And some departments have asserted that the public has no right to see such footage.
Having recently read The Circle, this particular that seems particularly resonant to me – do we really want the police to surveil us constantly?
Amongst the top qualities and abilities I want the leader of my country are:
- ability to negotiate
- ability to manage and work with others
- ability to strategise
Being a strong public debater doesn’t seem to me to directly be a strong qualification for governing.
In that respect I’m not convinced the leadership debates in the way they are formatted will give us any useful information about who we should vote for. Instead they will mislead us into believing personality and polemical speeches are things we should care about most.
That isn’t to say we shouldn’t be testing the parties and their leadership, but the importance attached to the leadership debates is bizarre.
After some years away from blogging regularly I have decided to get back into it. My livejournal is (thankfully) long gone, my blogspot is beyond saving, and my tumblr is stuck in limbo after an account error.
So back to my main website I return.
My plan is to blog once a week (though I will likely fail at this). Initially I’m keeping it simple, but as I get back into it I may blog more often, share more of the digital tools I use on a daily basis.
I read quite a lot of books. Practically anything that is recommended to me I will read. I have recently asked people at CARE to recommend some of their favourite books, and will start to review those here.
Best of the blogosphere and Twitter
I follow maybe 100 blogs, not including the people on Twitter, and I am going to start highlighting what I think are likely to be seminal or thought-changing (what the current book I am reading would obnoxiously call a ‘paradigm shift’) blogs, videos and ideas.
In particular the blogs I follow tend to focus on:
- International development
- Online communities
Tools and creations
As a Digital Officer at CARE International UK I regularly change the tools I use, my methods of working, and I am constantly troubleshooting obscure problems.
I’ll be posting some the useful tools, odd creations, and hard-won fixes and workarounds for digital tools I use. For the moment that will likely be experiences from using Engaging Networks, Sprout Social and Google Analytics as I am using those most frequently.
All opinions on this blog are my own and I often make mistakes. If I post anything that looks wrong to you, let me know on email@example.com.